National pundits have been all over the board about the unique and unprecedented appearance of Clint Eastwood at the final night of the Republican National Convention. Despite the typical talking heads analysis of the evening, one particular phrase by candidate Romney will have a direct impact on the staffing industry. His promise to do whatever was in his power to repeal and replace Obamacare would in no small way impact the healthcare staffing industry. The question to ask then, is, how?
Demographics dictate that advancing age produces more illness, and more illness requires more medical attention. The question surrounding the impact on healthcare staffing firms is how this care will be delivered, and what will be the economic drivers to sustain it? With extravagant displays such as the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, it is easy to be blinded by one ideological camp or the other.
Just as many large corporations make sure to balance their campaign spending for each party, it is wise to assess the local impact of either party winning the white house. The problems with assessing the impact of a Romney/Ryan ticket on the healthcare staffing industry are variables that can’t be answered at the present. Significant changes or even repeal of the “Affordable Care Act” would require passage in both houses of Congress. Currently, the Democratic Party controls the Senate, and the House is Republican controlled. A Romney/Ryan White House would be significantly limited in their ability to drastically change the existing legislation, but there are numerous funding initiatives that could be diminished to significantly scale back the full impact of the plan.
With that in mind, here is a simple decision tree to forecasting the direction of healthcare in the U.S.
- Obama/Biden win, Congress remains split, the “Affordable Care Act” will continue as expected, with accelerated deadlines for states not yet on board with exchanges.
- Obama/Biden win, both houses go Republican. “Affordable Care Act” will be slowed, due to restriction of funding mechanisms, but attempts to greatly alter the plan would be vetoed.
- Obama/Biden win, both houses go Democrat, same as number 1.
- Romney/Ryan win, congress remains split, same as number 2.
- Romney/Ryan win, both houses go Republican “Affordable Care Act” will largely be replaced with plans that have yet to be fully revealed.
- Romney/Ryan win, both houses go Democrat, same as number 2.
It seems the only drastic changes in the status quo would be a sweep of both houses and the Presidency. Any other combination would leave “Affordable Care Act” intact to some extent. The real question then becomes, if there is a Romney/Ryan win and both houses are Republican, what does the alternative to Obamacare look like, and at the end of the day, how many dollars will be moved into the healthcare industry. It is too soon to tell, and details of such a plan are at best premature. Stay tuned for the November elections as it will foretell the future of healthcare in the US like no other election has before.
