I was reminded after my recent blog quoting Dr. Peter Buerhaus of Vanderbilt University, that he has written two more articles concerning the shortage. Findings show a 62 percent increase in the number of 23- to 26-year-olds who became registered nurses between 2002 and 2009, a growth rate not seen in this age group since the 1970s, according to the research team of RAND Corp. health economist David Auerbach, Ph.D., Vanderbilt University School of Nursing’s Peter Buerhaus, Ph.D., R.N., and Dartmouth College professor of economics Doug Staiger, Ph.D.
According to Buerhaus, “These early signs are positive, but we need to continually grow the supply of nurses to effectively match the expected growth in demand over the coming years.”
One of the most comprehensive resources for recent studies on nursing shortages can be found at http://www.aacn.nche.edu/media-relations/NrsgShortageFS.pdf
If the current growth can be maintained, the estimated figures for shortages can be scrapped. There remain some challenges that may continue to create problems for the workforce:
Mobility
How closely do the growth figures by region match the demographics of the aging population? A survey of newly licensed RNs in 15 states found that 52.5 percent work within 40 miles of where they attended high school. (Christine Kovner-New York University) These results suggest a problem could arise if a more even distribution of the labor force is found.
Specialties
What percentage of graduates are preparing for a career in the field of geriatrics? The Institute of Medicine recently released two reports noting the need for RNs who are trained in geriatrics as well as those who are able to work in ambulatory settings.
In summary, the “sky is NOT falling”, but only time will tell if this recent turnaround can continue through the decade an on until 2020.
