It all started with the tension of the waiting game when the ultimate fate of the Affordable Care Act would be determined by the Supreme Court Justices. This hurdle was overcome by proclaiming part of the legislation as a “tax” instead of a mandate, and the voluntary participation by the states in the expansion of Medicaid. The next hurdle was the proclamation by some in Congress that this legislation would be repealed. When that didn’t occur, word was the Act would never get the funding necessary to be executed nationally.These bumps in the road are now in our rearview mirror, and thousands, or millions, depending on your source, are now enrolled in some form of the coverage presented via the Affordable Care Act.
Despite the current status of the plan, there are still significant rumblings about how to change course and derail the legislation. Early signs in the enrollment do not foretell a good trend for the economics of the plan. The hoped for young adults have not enrolled in the numbers expected, and the older, sicker demographics by far are the largest group of enrollees.
Will this trend create an economic burden on the U.S. Absolutely. Will this economic burden cause sufficient backlash to repeal the Affordable Care Act? Absolutely not! This horse has left the barn. The second after the first enrollee became insured through the ACA, the nature and future of the nation’s health insurance industry was changed forever. Industry leaders that still resist, and hold out for a reversal of the current status do so at their own peril.
The current legislation will be amended and parts of the plan will be “tweaked” over time, but the overriding theme of the Act will not go away. Any economic realities that will surely come to the forefront as the plan grows will not be sufficient ammunition for legislators to “take back” the coverage that has now been provided to a distinct population of Americans.
In summary, from a strategic standpoint, best to move forward with the assumption that ObamaCare is here to stay, rather than “hope for change.”
